STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF AGRARIAN SPHERE AND RECREATION IN THE ALTAI REGIONS, RUSSIA, UNDER REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Krasnoyarova B.A., Kharlamova N.F., Sharabarina S.N., Plutalova T.G., Indyukova M.A., Garms E.O.
The object of research is the territory of the Altai regions of Russia, in particular, Altai Krai and the Republic of Altai. It combines cultural and natural landscapes of the zonal steppe and forest-steppe areas and mountain altitudinal belts distinguished by a variety of climatic conditions. The analysis of possible climate changes in the Altai region showed a predominant development of land aridization under the reduction of humidity under a significant regional warming. The climate change impact on the agriculture and recreation management as the most significant in the socio-economic development of the Altai regions is evaluated. It is expected that the risks of agrarian nature management as well as the probability of natural disasters and emergencies due to the spring and autumn frosts, droughts, and heavy rains will increase. The greatest negative consequences for agricultural production are expected in the lowland Altai (border with Kazakhstan) due to the further arid climate, and in the intermontane depressions of the southern part of the Altai Republic, where the increasing aridity and development of sheep breeding will result in the adverse environmental consequences (degradation of pastures). More comfort conditions are expected in the northeastern, eastern and piedmont areas of Altai Krai, where humidity is not a limiting factor for agricultural production, and the increasing heat will allow a wider range of crops grown. It is found that the increase in air temperature during the warm season has a positive effect on the duration of the tourist season and the occupancy of recreational facilities. The in-depth analysis of prospects for the development of specific types of recreational activities (TRA) revealed that out of 55 TRA, found in the Altai regions, the 11 demonstrate a tendency to a significant reduction in resources and capabilities, 7 - to the development growth and 37 will remain without any changes. The climate change will exhibit a profound adverse effect on winter TRA (mountaineering, mountain skiing, etc.).
DOMESTIC PRICE FORMATION OF SORGHUM UNDER EXPORT POLICIES IN SUDAN
Mahmoud Ali Amassaib, Salah Mohamed Elawad, Elrashied Elimam Elkhidir
This paper was prepared to investigate the integration between the domestic and world prices of sorghum and measure the rate of transmission from world price to domestic price of sorghum. The study utilized secondary data covering the period 1970-2007.The data analyzed using dynamic linear regression model. The most important results revealed from the study were that the sorghum domestic price was inelastic in respond to both sorghum production cost and adjusted world prices in short run (0.2668 and 0.39543) and in long run (0.3982 and 0.5901). The effects of adjusted world price implied that devaluation and decrease of tariff rate would lead to increase of sorghum domestic price.
SALE MODELING IN AN ALGERIAN INDUSTRIAL FIRM: LOOKING INTO POSSIBLE APPLICATIONS USING BOX AND JENKINS METHODOLOGY
This study aims at applying Box - Jenkins analysis for time series to forecast sales in short term, which is considered as one of fundamental indicators necessary for taking important and strategic decisions for the Algerian industrial firm Denitex. This is in addition to its use in guiding the exploitation of the scare sources within the factory after analysing the previous sailings. The proposed model is characterized by many features; the most important one is the realism of its assumptions that make forecasts more reliable and accurate than any other forecasting models.
FEATURES OF RISK MANAGEMENT IN AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX
The article considers the sources of risk in agribusiness, as well as the features of the risk management of agro-industrial complex, its elements and importance; identified the stages of assessment and analysis of risks in agricultural production, the scheme of risk management have been proposed methods of risk mitigation.
DETERMINANTS OF DECISION AND PARTICIPATION OF RURAL YOUTH IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION: A CASE STUDY OF YOUTH IN SOUTHERN REGION OF NIGERIA
Sunday B. Akpan, Inimfon V. Patrick, Samuel U. James, Damian I. Agom
Evidence of labour constrained in the rural area and increasing rural -urban migration as well as mounting youth unemployment in urban areas of the Southern of Nigeria drove our interest to analyze youth involvement in agricultural activities in the region. Specifically, the study determined factors that modeled rural youth decision and participation in agricultural activities in the Southern region of Nigeria. Data were collected from 300 youth spread across the rural areas of Akwa Ibom State, one of the States in the region. Combinations of sampling methods were used to collect data for the study. Analytical tools used were descriptive and regression analysis (the Logit and Poisson regression). The Logit model estimates revealed that years of youth in social organization, access to ICT, nature of land ownership, and youth access to state owned agricultural programme were positive determined of decision of youth to engage in agricultural activities in the study area. On the contrary, male youth, years of formal education and marital status of youth were negative determinants. The Poisson estimates showed that, youth age, number of extension visit and years in social organization as well as purpose of farming were positive drivers of youth participation (numbers of hours spent in farm per day) in agricultural activities in the rural areas. On the other hand, years of formal education, farm income of previous farming season, land ownership and access to credit triggered youth participation negatively. Perceived constraints to youth involvement in agricultural activities were; insufficient initial capital, insufficient credit facility, poor storage facility, poor access to tractors and inadequate farm land among others. In order to increase youth involvement in agricultural activities in the rural areas, it is recommended that, stake holders should endeavor to provide storage facilities in the rural area to reduce the post-harvest losses. Communities in the rural area should support youth farmers through land donation. In addition government should empowered and strengthen youth groups or social capital formation in the rural Communities. State extension system should be strengthened to deliver more efficient services to youth farmers in the rural areas.
PROBLEMS OF ORGANIZING SERVICES IN TOURISM
Russia has all kinds of resources for the development of sports and recreation, medical, cultural, educational, business, ecological and rural tourism. One of the main problems of the organization of service in tourism is the quality of service, including the level of comfort of hotels, range of products and services, convenient location, animation programs.